Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
RT @maxseddon: One benefit of Gerhard Schroeder's entire staff resigning over Russia's war in Ukraine is there was nobody around to tell him not to give this absolutely damning interview.
Excellent piece by @kbennhold
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: A short, complete ban on Russian oil could also help minimize impact on Germany. Germany says there is enough oil in storage to last up to 200 days without Russian oil. So for German industry a short, complete ban on Russian oil doesn't mean a "sudden stop." With @BHilgenstockIIF
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Now think about the consensus proposal to slowly cut quantities of oil Russia can export. It gives Russia lots of time to divert its oil exports elsewhere. It keeps the oil infrastructure in Russia up and running, which means the hard currency machine for Putin also continues...
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: So, in practice, a short complete ban on Russian oil via sanctions on tanker insurance circumvents the worry that Russia diverts its oil exports elsewhere. In practice, well heads would flood quickly and need to be shut down. No more Russian oil exports to anywhere. No diversion.
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Russia has little storage capacity. A short, complete ban on Russian oil would quickly flood Russia's well heads, which would need to be "shut in," as @CraigKennedy77 flags. Once well heads are "shut in," there's no chance of diverting Russia's oil. Oil literally goes offline...
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: A short, complete ban on Russian oil exploits a key Russian vulnerability of little storage capacity, forcing Russia's oil industry to effectively shut down. This would give the West great bargaining leverage, since a complete embargo could be loosened as Russian wells overflow.
Europe about the do Oil embargo the exact wrong way: instead of sharp and sudden, which will flood Russian oil wells and destrog Russian oil industry, slow and steady allowing Putin to find new buyers. Important thread @JosepBorrellF @CharlesMichel @vonderleyen
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Debate over a Russian oil embargo is picking up. Consensus is for gradually cutting quantities of oil Russia can export, but - if the goal is to end war q…
Good analytical thread from General Ryan, arriving to similar conclusions as other respected top analysts such as @KofmanMichael: it is unlikely that a major Russian offensive in Donbas succeeds. I hope there are right.
RT @WarintheFuture: It is 59 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today I will update my analysis of Russia’s shift to the east and examine the prospects for Russian success there. 1/25 (Image - @UAWeap…
RT @obrien: The @nytimes has a dangerous obsession with Le Pen. A quick review of headlines from the past month:
Marine Le Pen Is as Dangerous as Ever
https://t.co/lsbh4SNcS1
Macron May Keep the Presidency, but Le Pen Has Already Won
https://t.co/t4vAGkpiYW
RT @masuch_klaus: Draghi’s great leadership!👇by @Fatassinari. Scholz: “we want to avoid a dramatic econ crisis, the loss of mill.of jobs …”
Draghi: “Peace is worth making sacrifices…. Peace is the most important value, irrespective of the sacrifice.” @BachmannRudi @EFDavies @Afelia @lugaricano
Draghi versus Scholtz. The difference between the analysis of someone who is both top economist and top politician and someone who has no clue what he is saying. What motivates this stunningly limp, passive, disappointing performance?
RT @Fatassinari: Scholz and Draghi gave major interviews less than 1w apart to @corriere & @derspiegel.
Contexts differ, deliverables may not be radically apart. But in a war, narratives matter.
Inst…
RT @Fatassinari: On arming Ukr:
Scholz: “Bundeswehr’s options… are largely exhausted… We are now helping the Ukr government to procure arms… [as] agreed to by our allies.”
Draghi: “we need to help Ukr directly... Not doing would equal to tell them: surrender, accept slavery and submission” 2/
Mientras esperamos a los resultados de estas elecciones clave para Europe, la mejor lectura sobre las reformas que ha conseguido hacer @EmmanuelMacron, muy similares a las que proponíamos @toniroldanm y yo en "Recuperar el futuro" y que están en el programa de @CiudadanosCs
RT @toniroldanm: Ya casi se me había olvidado el hermoso aspecto de la cuarterola en papel
Una buena reforma (y ni @BenitoArrunada ni yo decimos eso a menudo) del derecho concursal en trámite en el Congreso. Sería gran logro que llegara hasta el final sin grandes empeoramientos. Lean la explicación de @BenitoArrunada en @VozPopuli
RT @BenitoArrunada: Hoy defiendo la reforma concursal en trámite parlamentario. El contraste con otras leyes recientes (p.ej., vivienda) no puede ser mayor: es pragmática, y se aparta del sectar…
La democracia tiene ese instrumento maravilloso que lleva a hacer el ridículo a separatistas, populistas, revolucionarios y ultras: el sillón.
Aquí tienen a otro revolucionario de sillón criticando la extracción de rentas para pagar ... salarios cómo el suyo. 👇
RT @juan_ggallardo: Hoy reivindicamos el espíritu genuino que inspiró el nacimiento del movimiento comunero. Unámonos todos contra esas élites que extraen rentas al pueblo p…
The best military analyst of this war, who nailed the moment troops north of Kyiv would be exhausted, says this is the last offensive the Russian troops can undertake. I hope Ukraine can resist.
RT @KofmanMichael: Without national mobilization, I think the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state & availability of forces. Whether it succeeds, or fails, the Russian military will be l…
RT @Mylovanov: Thank you Max Hagler for interviewing me and other Ukrainian economists on the issue of oil embargo. Thank you for giving us voice as an alternative and complement to Western, and German, economists. My points 1. Russian gas and oil contribute to killing people in Ukraine 1/
RT @Mylovanov: 3. Germany and Europe should restart closed nuclear power plants, a possible option suggested by @lugaricano at his talk at @KyivSchool this week. The EU debate that goes like this: We can't do that. Instead think like this: we have to make it possible, as soon as possible!
RT @sndurlauf: 1/ Every scholar should be following @Mylovanov to understand the heroic fight he leads to preserve Ukrainian academia. Perhaps more important, his unparalleled insights and moral understanding make clear why Ukraine will eventually prevail.
The Chancellor seeks to ensure inaction by wildly exaggerating, to the point of inducing panic the risks of the gas embargo ("millons of unemployed") and of the delivery of heavy weapons ("nuclear war"). A coincidence? Or else, who is he trying to help?
RT @ulrichspeck: Panikmache bei Energiesanktionen ("Millionen von Arbeitslosen"), Panikmache bei Waffenlieferung ("dritter Weltkrieg, Atomkrieg"). Da zeigt sich ein Muster bei Kanzle…
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
