Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
This is infuriating:
WE ARE NOT EVEN TRYING
My speech making the same points, in a much more exasperated way, last week in the @europarl
I gave three specific examples:
- German Nuclear plants.
- Emergency pipelines
- Dutch gas,
?s=20&t=OkS8bVCWBPrR5VwMYP-Omg
RT @lugaricano: President von der Leyen, a gas ban is possible. We aren't even trying. If Europe does not stop funding Putin, history will not see us as bystanders. His…
So why don´t they do it?
The document @tomaspueyo uncovered from Econ and Envi minister is maddening. He cannot turn to Nuclear because:
- He would have to change law (hello??)
- Safety! (BS)
- No spare parts! (more BS)
- BS economic argument without cost-benefit
.@tomaspueyo shows we can eliminate the ENTIRE gas deficit with existing nuclear plants.
See the historical graph--you can easily eyeball it: the nuclear capacity eliminated is easily enough to replace gas. @tomaspueyo does the calculations.
Start with the mix: 30% of gas is used to generate electricity.
This is the easiest use to replace--anything can be used to produce electricity: renewable, coal, ... nuclear!
Of the gas GER uses, 40% is Russian (@GeorgZachmann ´s data). Of that, 1/2 can be brought by tanker, so need to be replaced 20%.
GER uses 30% of gas for electricity, so you don´t need to replace any of the gas for industry!
Just 2/3s of the gas used to generate electricity
We all suspect the reason that German Economy and Environment Minister is refusing to replace gas with nuclear is plain and simple: politics.
Today @tomaspueyo has the numbers and documents to prove it. https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/why-germany-wont-keep-its-nuclear?s=r
Perfecta parodia de nuestros "tontos útiles" en @elmundotoday
https://www.elmundotoday.com/2022/04/un-joven-incapaz-de-condenar-la-violencia-de-rusia-porque-ha-visto-un-chiste-machista-que-hizo-zelenski-en-2014/
Horn (@worldbank), @carmenmreinhart (@WorldBank and @Kennedy_Schoo) and @Ch_Trebesch (@kielinstitute) argue that Chinese stated-owned banks will retreat from foreign lending as a result of the war (8 April 2022)
https://voxeu.org/article/china-s-overseas-lending-and-war-ukraine
.@FerraraLaurent (@SKEMA_BS), Mogliani (@banquedefrance) and Sahuc (@jgsahucshow ) show that macro downside risks post 24/02 in the Euro area are about three times higher than those for the US economy. (7 April 2022)
https://voxeu.org/article/war-ukraine-and-high-frequency-macroeconomic-risk-measures
A really important contribution has been @TorbjornBecker, @B_Eichengree, @YGorodnichenko, @sguriev, S. Johnson (@MIT), @Mylovanov, @kRogoff and @bweder "Blueprint for the Reconstruction of Ukraine" (7 April 2022)
https://voxeu.org/article/blueprint-reconstruction-ukraine (7
Viktor Tsyrennikovt (@PromontoryFG) estimates that the combined effect of Russia’s 2014 invasion and the current war will cause damage in the region of $1.36 trillion to the Ukrainian economy (6 April 2022). https://voxeu.org/article/trillion-dollar-question-how-much-does-russia-owe-ukraine
.@MarkusEconomist H. James (@princeton), and Landau( @sciencespo) argue that the dominant role of the dollar as a reserve will be unaffected, but that countries may reduce their dependence on reserves by restricting capital movements. (5 April 2022)
https://voxeu.org/article/sanctions-and-international-monetary-system
.@rabah_arezki (@AfDB_Group) and Nysveen (@RystadEnergy) argue that sanctions placed on Russian oil may give new impetus to the energy transition and defend policies that increase the price elasticity of oil demand
https://voxeu.org/article/ukraine-invasion-oil-sanctions-accelerating-energy-transition
April 01 2022
Artuc (@wb_research), @guille_falcone, Guido Porto (@unlp), @BobRijkers show that the large increase in food prices due to the war reduces household welfare in 43 of 53 developing countries, with an average real income loss of -1.5%.
01 April 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/war-induced-food-price-inflation-imperils-poor
.@KornTob (@UniHannover) and Henry Stemmler (@uniGoettingen, @ETH_en) use evidence from over two decades of civil wars across the world to argue that the impact of war on international supply chains is likely to be persistent.
31 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/russias-war-against-ukraine-might-persistently-shift-global-supply-chains
.@tomfratti (@DemmUnimi @LaStatale) and @irene_solmone (@unipv @unihohenheim), use data from the past two decades to show that immigrant women face a double disadvantage determined by both their gender and immigration status.
30 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/labour-market-disadvantages-immigrant-women
.@DanielGrosCEPS makes the case for, instead of outright banning Russian gas imports, an alternative measure that would minimise economic disruptions: a special import tariff on Russian gas (30 March 2022)
https://voxeu.org/article/how-solve-europe-s-russian-gas-conundrum-tariff
.@essobecker (@MonashWarwick) argues (based on the WWII experience) that the massive refugee flow requires a united response, particularly providing timely access to education .
29 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/lessons-history-our-response-ukrainian-refugees
.@BekkersEddy (@wto) and @goescarlos (@UCSD) find that a potential decoupling of the global trading system into two blocs – a US-centric and a China-centric bloc – would reduce global welfare in 2040 compared to a baseline by about 5%.
29 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/impact-geopolitical-conflicts-trade-growth-and-innovation
.@AlexMihailov65 (@UniofReading) discusses the bizarre request by Putin to be paid for gas and oil in roubles and argues why it may matter.
29 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/why-paying-roubles-russian-gas-and-oil-might-matter
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
