Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
Pauline Grosjean @UNSWbusiness uses data from more than 35,000 individuals in 35 countries to show how conflict victimisation in WWII left a persistent negative imprint on levels of political trust throughout Europe and Central Asia.
28 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/conflict-empires-and-political-preferences
.@mark4harrison explores the degree of substitution in Olson´s analysis of ball bearings in Germany of the second world and UK in 3 wars. Concludes: there are no essential goods; there are only essential uses, which can generally be supplied in many ways. https://voxeu.org/article/economic-warfare-and-man-ur-olson-insights-great-power-conflict
The by now famous study of @BachmannRudi @DBaqaee @christianbaye13 @kuhnmo @andreasloeschel @ben_moll @APeichl Karen Pittel @ifo_Institut @MSchularick: the GDP impact of an estimated 30% shortfall of gas supplies is at 0.5% to 3%.
25 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/what-if-germany-cut-russian-energy
Muellbauer and Aron (@INETOxford) argue that Russia’s war creates immediate separate crises for the financial and global climate systems and that, by delaying approaches to net zero, their linkages increase future financial stability risks.
24 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/global-climate-accelerator-and-financial-accelerator-clarifying-commonalities-and-implications-putin-s-war
Berner (@nyu_vri) and Cecchetti (@BrandeisIBS) @kschoenh study the entire financial sanctions package including the role of swift, secondary sanctions, crypto and potential systemic risk consequences.
21 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/russian-sanctions-some-questions-and-answers
Yevhenii Skok (@livuni and @NBUkraine) and Oliver de Groot (@livuni) examine the policies used by the National Bank of Ukraine and the international financial community to maintain liquidity and financial stability in Ukraine.
17 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/war-ukraine-financial-defence
.@PascalSeilerETH (@ETH_en) using survey data from Switzerland and a quasi-experimental research design show that companies’ long-term inflation expectations have increased significantly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
12 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/ukraine-war-has-raised-long-term-inflation-expectations
.@patrickrobrien (@CTVoices @trinitycollege) and @nunopgpalma (@OfficialUoM) study the crucial role of the @BankofEngland supporting the economy during the Napoleonic wars and extracts implications for the impact of sanctions on the Russian Central Bank. https://voxeu.org/article/wartime-power-central-banks
.@JonDanielsson (@lsenews) argues that cryptocurrency exchanges have only done the bare minumum legally requiered to implement sanctions and studies the consequences.
11 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/cryptocurrencies-and-war-ukraine
.@JonDanielsson , Goodhart (@FMG_LSE @lsenews) and Macrae argue that the severe systemic crisis in 1914 provides a cautionary lesson for policymakers reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine today.
10 March 2022.
https://voxeu.org/article/sanctions-war-and-systemic-risk-1914-and-2022
Chepeliev (@PurdueAgEcon), @Hertel_thomas and van der Mensbrugghe (@PurdueUnivNews) argue that the longer-term cost of sanctions for Europe would be modest and would be offset by considerable environmental benefits.
9 March 2022
https://voxeu.org/article/cutting-russia-s-fossil-fuel-exports-short-term-pain-long-term-gain
Together with @dominic_rohner and @bweder, I am running a special @VoxEU section on the "Economic Consequences of War". A lot of very useful insights from expert economists!
A thread with a one phrase teaser/summary per piece. https://voxeu.org/debates/economic-consequences-war
Observen el mapa, el gas argelino o va a España o va a Italia.
¿Quién acierta?
- ¿Draghi, que viaja a Argelia para firmar un aumento del 50% de las exportaciones de gas argelino a Italia?
- ¿O Sánchez metiéndole el dedo en el ojo a los argelinos?
RT @federico_bosco: Draghi sarà ad Algeri per firmare un nuovo accordo di fornitura di gas che, secondo le indiscrezioni, aumenterà del 50% le esportazioni di gas algerino verso l'Italia …
Russland-verstehers and WW1 central powers (Austria-Hungary, Germany): any hypothesis/explanations?
@fromTGA @adam_tooze @joachim_voth
Stunned by the absolute idiocy of the Austrian Chancellor visiting Moscow at this point.
Putin wil exploit this visit - it will be great PR for Putin, as @AliceBota, to show he is not isolated in Europe, that Austria (and, he will imply, Germany) and Hungary are with him.
RT @JILopezBas: Las agencias independientes y los órganos de regulación son, precisamente, el primer mecanismo de control interno administrativo del Gobierno. No podemos permitir que quien gobierna controle a quien tiene que fiscalizar su acción. Son garantía democrática. https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2022/04/09/62506ae9e4d4d819058b4582.html
Here it is! Our sanctions make no difference to the level of capital being accumulated from energy exports, they only change which banks are accumulating them.
This is a completely hipocritical, empty, exercise.
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: So our sanctions compromise means that foreign asset accumulation has shifted from CBR (red) to non-sanctioned banks (blue). Our sanctions are re-jiggering foreign asset accumulation, but not stopping it…
Summary on how anti-embargo arguments by German industry linked academics have been thoroughly rebutted.
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Points by left-wing German academics on why a Russian energy embargo is bad: (i) embargo won't end the war; (ii) it hurts Germany more than Russia; (iii) sanctions mean Putin isn't getting hard currency for his energy exports; (iv) even if he gets hard currency, he can't spend it
This is my fear: the "Sanders voter" killed HIllary with the stupidity that "Trump and Hillary are the same s***". I sincerely hope the "Melanchon voter" does not gift the Presidency to the extreme-right. Without those voters, there is no path to presidency for Macron.
Macron: 28.1%
Le Pen: 23.3%
Melanchon: 20%
Zemour: 7%
Las buenas noticias: Macron pasa a la segunda vuelta con ventaja más clara de la prevista
Las malas: los amigos de Putin, populistas, extremos, consiguen la mayoría (un 51%) de los votos.
Mucho miedo a la segunda vuelta
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
