Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu

RT Niall Ferguson
Re A stream of brilliant insights on the Prigozhin mutiny from my @HooverInst colleague Stephen Kotkin: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/prigozhin-rebellion-putin-fate-russia-future-stephen-kotkin

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/nfergus/status/1673384444638396418

RT Dara Massicot
Although it appears quiet in Russia today, things are not back to 'normal.' The coming days or weeks will tell more. Until then, its wise to consider that “nothing is true and everything is possible” – even the things we see. A few reflections for today: https://t.co/R3MEHw8Sxf

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/MassDara/status/1673012427405893633

RT Dmitri Alperovitch
Re 6. That loyalty to Putin does not run deep. In the crucial 13 hours before Putin's speech, few came out in support of him. No governors, no Duma members, not even his national security council. Only 2 generals Surovikin and Alekseev recorded 'hostage videos' urging Wagner to stop

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/DAlperovitch/status/1673048878579326977

RT Dmitri Alperovitch
Re In a brutal authoritarian system, displays of such weakness are dangerous. It's not that someone might decide to make a move on Putin tomorrow but that his propensity to avoid making tough decisions is likely to cause various actors within the Russian system to start ignoring him

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/DAlperovitch/status/1673048908090449926

RT Kevin Bryan
Lovely obit of Harry Markowitz, who developed modern portfolio theory in his '52 article: to maximize returns under risk aversion, buy negatively correlated assets in a particular way. An idea so novel & useful it's hard to see what people did prior to it! https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/obituaries/harry-m-markowitz-dead.html

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Afinetheorem/status/1673066315660009474

RT Fernando Sols Cueto
No entiende como funcionan los permisos de maternidad.
Desconoce que su Gobierno ha encarecido drásticamente el coste para las empresas de emplear un madre durante un permiso de nacimiento.
Un hilo breve para explicarlo.
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Yolanda Díaz: Dice el PP que es el partido de las familias, pero consideran la maternidad una carga que hay que compensar a las empresas.
Las familias necesitan tiempo y recursos para cuidar. Con medidas discriminatorias no se puede gobernar España, señor Feijóo. https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/2023/06/25/6498091021efa0f0718b45ac.html
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/fernandosols/status/1673073227747282945

Si realmente nos interesa corregir la brecha de género, debemos actuar sobre sus causas. Excelente hilo de @fernandosols
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Fernando Sols Cueto: Sabemos desde hace tiempo que la maternidad es el principal causante de la brecha de genero.
Al tener el primer hijo, el sueldo de las madres cae drásticamente, con respecto a los hombres y a las mujeres sin hijos, y tarda varios años en recuperarse.
https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/20/Files/do2017e.pdf https://t.co/YlvtJuhnZA
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1673082474312654851

Re Gas is a different thing: we refused to sanction it (we have not yet done it) hence the Nordstream attack.
Happily, hoping to weaken spport, Putin self sanctioned. We need to go all the way to 0 over the next few months.
8/ https://t.co/S5ZbwDJoSD

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568217632374784

Re What about aid?
- The US has delivered over 75bn total including humanitarian military etc. (CFR, May 2023).
- The EU and EU countries have delivered over 70bn, with some countries near Ukraine doing really significant efforts (Baltics-10% GDP).
9/ https://t.co/MtB7r3uSN7

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568219880570881

Re What about reconstructions aid? The consensus estimate right now is that Ukraine will need €411 bn. Compare, e.g. with the EU Next Gen (750bn) to see how large it is.
Barry Eichengreen in conference argued that privately funding it required implausaible funds of money.
10/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568222418194436

Re But it is unlikely Western taxpayers will be up to pay these large amounts. A recent paper by @LHSummers , Zelikow (of 9/11 Report fame) and Zoelick argues in favor of using the Russian Reserves seized. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/other-counteroffensive-save-ukraine
11/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568224305623040

Re They argue we need to move from Sanctions to Countermeasures "an act of non-compliance by a state with an international obligation owed towards another state in response to a prior breach of international law by that other state. .", and that there are precedents:
12/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568226377506816

RT Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Re After Iraq ’ s 1990 invasion of Kuwait, states adopted countermeasures after sanctions failed: France, the United Kingdom, and the United States led the way in transferring frozen Iraqi state funds to an international escrow
What are the risks?
13/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568228332068865

Re Summers et al. discuss and dismiss 3:
-To Dollar/Euro role?: Sure, but what are the alternatives? Is Renminbi safer?
- Russian retaliation? Has already done it, will lose arbitration.
- Precedent? But countries protect foreign investment because they see it in their interest.

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568230194425857

Re Barry Eichengreen in the conference worried about the Politics: would we not be increasing the chance of revanchism/post WW1 Versailles in Russia?
Maybe not, in my view. Money is gone/loss is sunk: there will be no back and forth over a decade about how much should be paid.
15/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568232031444992

Re But this will be the biggest discussion policy makers need to have. There is no question Ukraine must be rebuilt, and fast. Can/should we use the money from the Frozen Russian Assets?
END

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1672568233956712450

RT Darth Putin
Exactly 16 months ago, residents of Kiev were fortifying their city to prevent a Russian invasion.
Today, residents of Moscow are fortifying their city to also prevent a Russian invasion.
I remain a master strategist.

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672580144911851522

RT Therese Raphael
“In 2021, Russia was considered to possess the second best army in the world.
In 2022, it had the second best army in Ukraine.
In 2023, it’s the second best army in Russia.”
Russian humor in moments of crisis is unbeatable.

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/ThereseRaphael1/status/1672591320790048768

Reading @cblatts thread, you can get the feeling of being inside a top academic conference trying to analyze in real time Prizoghin's coup.
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Chris Blattman: An unexpected joy of being at the ⁦@BeckerFriedman⁩ political economy conference in Paris is having ⁦@k_sonin⁩ give us a real-time paper presentation on events as they evolve in the previous 24h. Will try to capture some of the main points. https://t…

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/16726147377276

RT Garry Kasparov
Having been defeated repeatedly by Ukraine, Russian forces have found an easier opponent, one with corrupt leadership, incompetent commanders, and low morale.

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Kasparov63/status/1672622178989219843