Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
Proposal:
Lesson from CS: even for large banks (GSBI) we cannot trust the capital estimates.
Hence SSM must impose moratorium on dividend/buy backs until investigation of whether equity values (marking to market assets and valuing deposit franchise) are close to CET.
RT @lugaricano: INSANE: Together with proposed dividend, Unicredit will distribute €5.25bn to shareholders. They in turn back increase in CEO salary plus bonus to €9.7m.
For a bank with a mark…
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640848800825872385
Dear Central banks, stop fulfilling your mandate and please subsidize our free-riding.
Thanks! Best wishes,
Unicredit
PS. Financial dominance? What is that?
https://www.research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/economics_docs_2023_184806.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJJtmvAqN5jK-hs8uK0U6bMI=&T=1
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640846395115732992
@RobertWagnerJr4 @HansGruener @ecb See below. Whether in the Hold-to-maturity portfolio or marked-to-market is (as CS and SVB found out) inmaterial from an economic perspective.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640810251221086208
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
boosted
The explanation for this type of behavior was given by @MarkusEconomist: "Being weak is your strenth." By being weak, a bank avoids losses being push on it- on the contrary , it ensures it is bailed out. Someone in the ECB should read this lecture https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/lezioni-baffi/pblecture-12/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640804840837373952
The explanation for this type of behavior was given by @MarkusEconomist: "Being weak is your strenth." By being weak, a bank avoids losses being push on it- on the contrary , it ensures it is bailed out. Someone in the ECB should read this lecture https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/lezioni-baffi/pblecture-12/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640804840837373952
INSANE: Together with proposed dividend, Unicredit will distribute €5.25bn to shareholders. They in turn back increase in CEO salary plus bonus to €9.7m.
For a bank with a market cap of €30bn.
With bns of unreconized bond losses.
In a banking crisis.
@ecb: are you awake?
RT @ReutersBiz: UniCredit gets ECB approval for 3.34 bln euro share buyback https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/unicredit-gets-ecb-approval-334-bln-euro-share-buyback-2023-03-28/?taid=64232099dc8e300001a9febf&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640801715514658816
Well put, @SenSherrodBrown . Tails I win, heads you lose is the kind of bet these "libertarians" like.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640746141607424003
Using a LLM, this fascinating paper (by Hansen @pj_lambert @I_Am_NickBloom Davis @raffasadun @bledi_taska) classifes universe of online job postings into WTH and not.
Easy to imagine methodology leveraged to measure human capital, AI incidence etc.
https://poid.lse.ac.uk/PUBLICATIONS/abstract.asp?index=9955
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640738403150086144
@sbuhai @LonesSmith @drmehmetismail Thanks for the referencento Fisher's QJE piece! I did not know the article. It is transparently written, very readable and insightful.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640560612827623424
RT @peterframpton: I have posted this before but ..
26 years ago, a gunman entered
Dunblane Primary School in Scotland,
killing 16 kids and a teacher. The UK
govt responded by enacting tight gun
control legislation. In the 9400+ days
since, there have been a total of O
school shootings in the UK.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640488113863643136
Los datos eran erróneos. El autor, normalmente muy cuidadoso, los corrige aquí, gracias a puntualización de @fernandosols
?t=cv9TGl_-LIm_ywcKRJNjhQ&s=19
RT @lugaricano: Buenas noticias para la banca española por el lado de los depósitos: los más estables de Europa.
Otra cosa son las carteras de bonos soberanos. Pero si los depósitos no se mueven, no hay que vender la cartera y realizar la perdida. Se puede mantener el bono hasta que madure.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640339764598513665
RT @JuanLuis_JG: ⚠️ Dato macro recién publicado: el PIB per cápita en España en 2022, en paridad del poder adquisitivo (es decir, considerando los niveles de precios), fue un 15% inferior a la media de la Unión Europea.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640336212681433089
RT @ylecun: I have claimed that Auto-Regressive LLMs are exponentially diverging diffusion processes.
Here is the argument:
Let e be the probability that any generated token exits the tree of "correct" answers.
Then the probability that an answer of length n is correct is (1-e)^n
1/
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640137670956396545
Aquí están las carteras de bonos soberanos (que, según cual sea su duración, pueden haber sufrido diferentes niveles de pérdidas al subir los tipos).
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640048363834933248
Buenas noticias para la banca española por el lado de los depósitos: los más estables de Europa.
Otra cosa son las carteras de bonos soberanos. Pero si los depósitos no se mueven, no hay que vender la cartera y realizar la perdida. Se puede mantener el bono hasta que madure.
RT @jeuasommenulle: This, from my parsing of approx 100 europeans banks LCR disclosures, is share of retail deposits that are stable per country
- It's important for credit risk (see switzerl…
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1640047299152826368
RT @NTenzer: #Austria's unacceptable complicity: must be stopped.
"The Austrian Raiffeisen is the most important Western bank in #Russia, offering a payments lifeline & accounting for roughly 1/4 of € transfers to the country, although other banks are still present."
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/ecb-pressures-austrias-raiffeisen-bank-to-quit-russia/
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1639743185768308737
RT @emollick: Management consultants, keep a close eye on AI.
As an experiment, I fed GPT-4 the official practice McKinsey cases, including the math. It nails it, often better than the official answer. (As far as I can tell, these launched after the training data window for GPT-4 concluded)
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1639347322805968911
RT @JohnSimpsonNews: The Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai has sacrificed his liberty and perhaps his life in defence of press freedom. He is a genuine hero. His lawyer says she doesn’t think the British government is doing enough to support him. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11891241/Jimmy-Lai-Lawyer-slams-Government-radio-silence-China-sponsored-arrest-75-year-old.html
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1638980004762775558
RT @AndresVelasco: We at the School of Public Policy are delighted to welcome back Luis Garicano to the LSE. He is a world-class scholar and an outstanding policymaker. I look forward to working together, Luis!
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1638933042541543424
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
