Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
Re 2) The evidence is really really weak. Depending on your specification you get that chemo increases, leaves the same, or reduces cancer. Again, analysis from your colleague Dr. Valery R.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1690311757015711744
Re Ok, enough.
I hope this clarified, or at least made you curious. Now go to John's post and read. And weep.
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/08/interest-rates-and-inflation-part-2.html
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1690311760471801856
Maybe some high school student will pick it up better this way?
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Anthony Bonato: Taylor Swift as math functions, for all the Swifties. A thread.
y = -x
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1690328605576892416
RT John Cochrane
Great summary story from Luis Garicano. It starts with doctor F who says you can’t see how well the drug works because of long and variable lags…
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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦: Must read blog (and series of blogs!) by @JohnHCochrane on what we really know on the impact of interest rates on inflation.
Summary: very little.
A tiny thread on identification explaining the last blog with an analogy, specially for non-economists.
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2023/08/interest-rates-and-inflation-part-2.html
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/JohnHCochrane/status/1690350502536728576
RT John Cochrane
Re @lugaricano One possibility: if they change drug or dose because of something truly unrelated to disease, like taste of drug. Ie funds rate moves due to something other than future inflation or its causes. But what?
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/JohnHCochrane/status/1690351456959000576
RT James Traina: Re @JohnHCochrane @lugaricano Maybe political economy / agency motives? e.g. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13257
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/EconTraina/status/1690382290843758593
RT Oleg Itskhoki
RU ruble depreciated ~100% since its peak of 53 rub/USD last summer to ~100 now. The pace⬆️ this summer since Prigozhin mutiny and expropriations of West./private companies
Time to step up fin+export sanctions to further limit fiscal space for Putin’s war efforts in 🇺🇦/elsewhere
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/itskhoki/status/1690386882868240385
Agree. Very good. Shame on the Austrians for not protecting Grozev and on @elonmusk for entirely lacking the ability to differentiate Good and Evil.
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Francis Fukuyama: Great interview: Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev: ‘Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup’ https://www.ft.com/content/03f220e1-6a7e-4850-bf4e-4b0f521d8f8c
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1690433088617172992
RT Ivan Werning
Argentine presidential elections: a libertarian economist (associates with the Austrian school) garnered most votes yesterday.
Far from decisive but relevant: these were primaries, but open ones (you vote for any party) making them a relevant barometer for true elections.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/IvanWerning/status/1691032765276254208
Different policies and growth forecasts follow two interpretations of China's stagnation:
-Keynesian: need more stimulus! in @TheEconomist leader https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/09/can-china-escape-deflation
- Institutional: arbitrariness/lack of rule of law, in @adamposen's essay https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/end-china-economic-miracle-beijing-washington
Your view?
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689952200305295360
Come for the laugh and stay for the master class in classical music.
Beautiful and funny.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=WRfsibwR5x4&feature=share8
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689708252269813760
RT David Frum
Trump looks likely to clinch the Republican presidential nomination and be convicted of multiple federal crimes - all in the same few weeks.
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Garrett Haake: The Special Counsel has just proposed a Jan 2nd trial date for the Trump/2020 election case, which they say should take 4-6 weeks.
Overlaid with the GOP political calendar, that means the trial would start during pre-Iowa sprint, and run through the entire early state window.
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/davidfrum/status/1689719807401136128
Late to this great thread.
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Beatrice Cherrier: 1/There’s this economist few remember, who wrote the 1st 2-sectors growth model, brought Pontryagin to econ, played rugby w/ Inada, argue over Marxism & Keynes w/ Solow & Kahn, rediscovered Veblen & ended up contributing to a papal encyclical.
His name is Hiro Uzawa (宇沢弘文)
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689761991395508224
Interesting paper. Finds more inertia, less variability when shopping online than offline. Appears to indicate higher switching cost (and hence barriers to entry) online.
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Jūra Liaukonytė: 1/3 Excited to share that our paper, co-authored with @saichandc and @nccyang, exploring the differences between online and offline grocery shopping, has been accepted for publication in @Mrktng_Science!
You can find the full paper here:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3992849
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689764820130635776
Re @petercoy Nice piece, but you ignore selection into marriage: e.g. are the cohabitating couples and the married ones otherwise similar? Whatever explains the different choice could explain also the apparent advantages of marriage.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689398249172422656
RT Michael Reid
Not long ago Ecuador was a haven of peace in the Andes. Organised crime has grown there with terrifying speed. Fernando Villavicencio was an anti-corruption campaigner and a democrat. RIP https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-fernando-villavicencio-killed?CMP=share_btn_tw
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/michaelreid52/status/1689541653864779777
The free market newspaper of record thinks that the Communist Party of China is too fiscally responsible and needs to invest more in white elephants.
Not a word about how absence of rule of law and legal insecurity constrains investment. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/09/can-china-escape-deflation
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689566029611933696
The USA insane gun (and drug) policies are responsible for the violence engulfing Ecuador.
Mexico cannot win against the cartels while they have access to $$$ and guns from across the border.
Mexico militarized the response and the cartels militarized back, buying US weapons.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689582386252505089
Re @Birdyword Hi @Birdyword , I don't know to whom this should be addressed. Your calls are usually impeccable, hence my suprise.
https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689566029611933696?t=zlUnX1JfOXkCpQt4oUzCdw&s=19
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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦: The free market newspaper of record thinks that the Communist Party of China is too fiscally responsible and needs to invest more in white elephants.
Not a word about how absence of rule of law and legal insecurity constrains investment. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/09/can-china-escape-deflation
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🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689628785409245184
Example: "The rise in US gun sales to Guatemala has been among the steepest in the world. ... In just a few years the number of murders has risen. ... many on the receiving end ... are ill equipped to handle the influx"
And this is just legal exports:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-us-gun-violence-border-crisis-guatemala/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=230810&utm_campaign=bigtake
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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦: The USA insane gun (and drug) policies are responsible for the violence engulfing Ecuador.
Mexico cannot win against the cartels while they have access to $$$ and guns from across the border.
Mexico militarized the response and the cartels militarized back, buying US weapons.
</div>
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1689632248319152129
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
