Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
Una absoluta joya en @elconfidencial, sobre nuestra "Ruta 66." Muy bien escrito, investigado e ilustrado.
Nacional III - La carretera fantasma https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2018-04-20/carretera-fantasma-nacional-iii-valencia-madrid_1552420/
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648699318046535686
@ProfAroraAshish You are welcome! No, sorry, no link.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648681916281831426
Fantastic interview with the first "prompt engineer" on what LLMs can do, on how and why they evolved in the last year, and how to use them.
RT @goodside: Got to chat about prompt engineering, RLHF, LLM red teaming, AI safety, and AGI with @labenz on the @CogRev_Podcast — thanks so much for having me, Nathan! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg3H-9nxkyI
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648511008674308096
Innovation will help, but fossil fuel innovation is also very significant (e.g. shale oil and gas recovery increasing!).
In sum: we need significant policy change.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485475106291717
Why is it so difficult to price carbon? Is it because of distributional consequences?
Economist answer: simply redistribute the revenues- poor will be much better off.
Example with carbon tax at $52, collecting $2.1tn for government in next decade.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485472065429504
However, only a few places have carbon taxes. And those that have it set it way below $200 (at $4 on average!)
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485469087481856
This is even more the case if we include the health cost of particulate matter. Coal really should stay on the ground.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485465769787392
Solution?
We must Price Energy at its full social cost- pollution should not be free.
Social cost of carbon is estimated by Greenstone at around $200. If we fully priced emissions we would find that Coal is MOST EXPENSIVE TECHNOLOGY!
Also (Germany!) nuclear is the cheapest.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485463634882560
7. IRA will make a difference to US emitions. But not enough.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485460933742594
6. Paris agreement etc. did make a difference. Worse case scenarios are being avoided. We are on path to a bit over 2 degrees of warming.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485457746104321
5. There is no getting around that there will have to be large reductions in emissions from poorer, middle income economies.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485454675857409
4. Hugely heterogenous effect of climate change- e.g. as seen on mortality.
Difference is that "red places"- those with big increases in mortality, are where the bulk of population currently live.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485450859024390
3. Fossile fuels will not just run out on their own.
On the contrary we are finding oil faster than we can use it:
We had 30 years worth of oil in 1980, 40 years today. Huge reserves of coal and gas.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485447948181504
2. Same for cars. Oil prices need to be quite high for EVs to be less costly: you need oil price at €129 for battery powered car to be more economical.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485444580151296
Where are we on Climate Change?
Mike Greenstone @UChi_Economics gave a great talk @chicagobooth. I will post a few of his charts.
1. Including battery back-up, cost of electricity from renewables is 3x/4x more expensive than from fossil fuels.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648485441547689984
Niels Bohr, in the same paragraph:
"the scientific method doesn't filter for benevolence. Knowledge has consequences, not always intentended, not always comfortable, not always welcome."
h/t @pietgaricano.
Source "The Making of the Atomic Bomb", Rhodes.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648369795862253568
Can we pause the development of Artificial Intelligence?
Oppenheimer and Bohr would probably be skeptical.
Oppenheimer (reflecting on the Atomic bomb)
"deep things in science are not found because they are useful, they are found because it was possible to find them"
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648369793450536961
RT @pietgaricano: this book is astonishingly good... the praise speaks for itself
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648343633702297602
RT @I_Am_NickBloom: Summary of our new paper measuring the rise of hybrid and remote work in the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand at https://wfhmap.com/
With @raffasadun, @pj_lambert, @StephenEKHansen, @Bledi_Taska and Steve Davies
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648324953463193603
"race-based arguments bring with them the exhumation of the pre-modern habit of judging people based on group characteristics rather than individual achievement. History is repeating itself as both tragedy and farce at the same time." @adwooldridge
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1648174297909690368
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
