Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
The first sanctions, on oligarchs and central bank assets, were fast and painful for Russia.
However, the EU chose to continue importing oil and gas. Hence Russia could withstand the initial shock.
Here was my assessment on March 8th.
2/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85Oun3jq1F0
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977370320326657
On the anniversary of the criminal invasion of Urkaine by Russia, what is the balance of a year in sanctions?
On a presentation to my then @europarl colleagues on February 27th, I argued in favor of:
"Do it all
Do it hard
Do it now"
?s=20
1/10
RT @lugaricano: Today we had a meeting of @RenewEurope to discuss Ukraine. I share here a few proposals on #EconomicWarfare I prepared for the Group to discuss (link at end).
Given the failure of Putin´s initial plans, …
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977367568855045
RT @joshrauh: @lugaricano @ZLiscow @StanfordGSB Very interesting. Any PPP experts want to weigh in?
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628173435821248512
Good 2015 blog post warning about the risks of AI from the cofounder of OpenAI @sama: it is not that AI will be evil, but that, to achieve whatever aim we give it, it will see us humans as a nuisance.
At least, he realizes the risks of what he is doing.
RT @peterhartree: Some people think @sama is ignorant or reckless.
In February 2015, 10 months before founding @openai, he wrote a blog post which began:
“Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probab…
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627902036561002496
@joshrauh @ZLiscow @StanfordGSB Josh, seeing this, and the dilapidated state of US infrastructure, I wonder how much of US GDP massive advantage vs. EU is this: inflated costs to deliver health, transport, etc., often badly or not at all accounted for in standard PPP comparisons, so that they show up as output.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627900713874644994
When I was an MEP, I had the opportunity to investigate first hand the discrimination suffered by Ahmadi Muslims- who are not recognized as muslims by other groups and are treated as apostates by Pakistan's institutions.
The news now from Pakistan are particularly worrying.
RT @AmjadMKhanEsq: I’ve tracked & analyzed the persecution of Ahmadi Muslims in Pakistan for over 25 years, but I’ve never seen a more alarming & dangerous trend line than over the past 60 day…
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627899201370873856
RT @AmjadMKhanEsq: I’ve tracked & analyzed the persecution of Ahmadi Muslims in Pakistan for over 25 years, but I’ve never seen a more alarming & dangerous trend line than over the past 60 days (which is saying A LOT given how severe the persecution has been for so long). @SecBlinken, please…
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627898577166147586
RT @scienceisstrat1: Europe 🇪🇺 is in trouble on innovation.
ChatGPT Shows Just How Far Europe Lags in Tech.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627885787617558531
RT @sama: writing a really great prompt for a chatbot persona is an amazingly high-leverage skill and an early example of programming in a little bit of natural language
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627839531146944515
Well done Mr Biden, @POTUS, showing your commitment and courage.
RT @ZelenskyyUa: Historic. Timely. Brave. I welcomed @POTUS in Kyiv as Russian full-scale aggression approaches its one-year mark. I am thankful to the U.S. for standing with Ukraine and for our strong partnership. We are determined to work together to ensure Ukraine’s victory.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627799140393717762
The measure of our failure in 2022 (now being corrected): at $580bn, Russia had in 2022 the highest oil and gas revenues in its history. The West has more than paid the bills for the war.
https://re-russia.net/en/expertise/052/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627527907328544768
@NatBullard Broken link, @NatBullard
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627516887352619008
RT @salonium: Many know that the Carter Center, founded by Jimmy Carter, has been working towards eradicating neglected diseases like Guinea worm.
But fewer know how successful this has been.
In 1989, there were >890,000 cases worldwide.
In 2021, there were 15.
https://ourworldindata.org/guinea-worm-path-eradication
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627499624004227072
Real time, daily, data on total consumption (not just credit card) available since today from @bbva for 6 countries: Mexico, Spain, Turkey, Argentine, Colombia, Perú.
RT @alvaroortiz1968: Ya puedes consultar los datos diarios de "Consumo Total" (no sólo tarjetas) & datos de España y otros países 👇https://www.bbvaresearch.com/special-section/bigdata/?geografia=3072&subseccion=catalog-1_item-1 @jgjorrin @APIE_es @AsociacionTCEE @JorgeGalindo @dfuentescastro @EnriqueFeas @idebarron @manuelmunizv @lugaricano @ElcanoJjRuiz @iespega
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627239378044227584
@emollick @simonw Thing is it does not matter if it is sentient or just auto completing, if it speaks and *acts* AS IF it is angry with humans, we are in trouble.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1627176833807683585
The combination of the oil price cap and the EU oil embargo is significantly reducing the price of Russian oil in the market.
Good job, @AsstSecEcon @VDombrovskis @JosepBorrellF @eucopresident
RT @AsstSecEcon: The price cap lowers Russian oil revenues in two ways:
1. Locking in a price ceiling for any trade using coalition services.
2. Providing leverage to buyers of Russian oil—including sales outside the cap—shown by the growing discount between global oil and…
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1626705717871648770
Strength of rubble does not measure whether sanctions work, but which side of the sanctions works better: sanctioning exports depreciates the exchange rate; limiting imports appreciates it.
Such a model accounts well, out-of-sample, for rubble 's path, see paper.
RT @itskhoki: Very impressed by the precision of our forecast of the Ruble exchange rate with @MukhinDA which we made back in August based on a calibration of our model using the likely path of Russian e…
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1626582230033367041
Fastest exponential growth of any technology, ever?
2017- Initial paper ("Attention is all you need")
2018- First transformer, GPT, 100M parameters
May 2020- GPT3 100 Billion (10^11)
2021- Google Switch 1.6 Trillion (10^12) parameters.
2023- GPT4?
RT @xamat: My Transformers Catalog has become one of my most popular posts ever. Some of you told me that you turned into a pdf for easier reading. I thought I should make it into an arXiv preprint. Here you go: 60 …
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1626368620388286465
Sources: https://elpais.com/espana/2023-02-09/putin-esquiva-el-embargo-de-la-ue-con-el-trasvase-de-crudo-junto-a-ceuta-en-buques-que-fondean-en-gibraltar.html
https://qz.com/a-tiny-spanish-port-has-become-a-new-hub-for-russian-oi-1850048140
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-02-14/romeria-petroleo-ruso-continua-puertas-ceuta_3575454/
@baselinescene @Mylovanov @jasonfurman @LukaszRachel
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1626293189727645696
Sanctions circumvention (and risk of environmental disaster) alert: Russian tankers are using the waters in front of Ceuta to transfer millions of barrels of oil from small ships to Chinese etc. tankers (VLCC).
Spain must stop this by any legal means.
https://www.rtve.es/play/videos/telediario-2/trasvasan-crudo-ruso-entre-buques-hacia-china/6805705/
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1626293186158002177
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
