Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu

With good insights by @goodside !

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1630050581430820864

The job of the future? Will Prompt Engineering disappear as AI keeps getting better? Or will we always need Ai-whisperers? A must read article.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/02/25/prompt-engineers-techs-next-big-job/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1630039697354366980

@joshgans @ProfAroraAshish @Noahpinion Depends on how dumb you think we are - after the Covid round, there are many competing labs entering the second round of the "who is the most stupid human who ever lived" tournament.

(We must forbid gain of function research!)

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1630019803225391104

The US Dept of Energy now thinks "Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid".

It is frightening to know that the gain of function research that probably caused Covid is still going on in many labs. It is about time all governments join forces to forbid it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629848244678455298

RT @shashj: “The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress.” Cc ⁦@natashaloder⁩ https://t.co/X1olq70rlW

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629846108716544001

Mi análisis de la noche del 24 de febrero de 2022: no a la ley del más fuerte; Putin es vulnerable. Debemos apoyar a Ucrania con todo.
RT @lugaricano: Ayer por la noche me enfadé en directo porque estoy harto del falso pragmatismo que sugiere que no tomemos medidas contra Rusia y que aceptemos la ley del más fuerte.

La Unión Europea es una superpotencia económica y podemos defender nuestros valores. Putin es vulnerable.

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629514411949068291

RT @Ch_Trebesch: The biggest surprise was the data on the Gulf War 1990/91. I was not aware how much Germany or Japan did to help liberate Kuwait. Germany alone gave 16.9 billion D-Marks in military and financial aid to its allies (0.55% of GDP). That is 3x its bilateral aid to Ukraine in 2022.

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629432484810354694

RT @Ch_Trebesch: 📢Is Western aid to Ukraine large or small? Our new Ukraine Tracker release takes a "big picture view" over 100 years. Main insight: It's comparatively small. US expenses in previous wars were far higher &the EU mobilized 10x more for other crises (Euro, Covid19, energy crisis)🧵

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629432484701282304

RT @Ch_Trebesch: In 2022, European governments mobilized large-scale support, but the large bulk of this emergency fundung was for their own population, not for Ukraine. @Bruegel_org data show the massive scale of Europe's energy subsidy packages. They are 10- 20x larger than the aid for UKR

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629432484655144960

RT @I_Am_NickBloom: In the UK there is now rationing of fruit and vegetables. This last happened in World War II.

The BBC reported Brexit supporters claiming it has nothing to do with leaving the EU, but is entirely due to bad weather in Southern Europe :-)

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629385270712999937

RT @mcgregorrichard: More remarkable detail (or more detailed allegations) related to the scandal over Chinese interference in the Canadian election.

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629382690251341824

RT @schrep: 2 important details:
a) Shows that smaller models trained with more data can outperform larger models (e.g. 13B outperforms GPT-3 175B)
2) The "larger" 65B model is competitive with best models - and is freely available to the research community!
https://research.facebook.com/publications/llama-open-and-efficient-foundation-language-models/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1629230230304063489

Now, the West has to remain united behind Ukraine. We have done a lot, but always too late. It is still true, as it was on February last year, that many lives can be saved if we are willing to incur sacrifices to reduce Russian oil and gas revenues.

Slava Urkaini.
10/10

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977392784908288

The most important of these has been renewable energy. Renewable energy capacity in the EU is projected to double in 2022-2027. The war has a lot to do with it: since 2021 the forecast has been revised by almost 40% in the EU.
https://www.iea.org/topics/russias-war-on-ukraine

9/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977389433761793

But it is not just luck. As @ben_moll @BachmannRudi and I an others argued during 2022, modern economies are much more resilient than engineers and politicians believe. Covid showed it and the war again. Unimagined substitution possibilities are many.
8/
?lang=en
RT @ben_moll: Thread: a collection of concrete cases of substitution & demand reduction in the energy crisis.

Economic theory predicts that, as prices rise, households & firms reduce demand and substitute…

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977386665480197

What has been the impact of Putin's gas weapon? Parlty due to luck (good weather, Zero Covid in China), the Eurozone avoided a recession in Q3 and Q4
https://www.ft.com/content/004faaeb-52d2-4b93-aaf7-01b5a9531a90

7/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977383683358722

3. Even though there are no gas sanctions officially, the EU imported in Jan 80% less gas from Russia than last year

6/
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977380856418306

2. As a sign that the cap is hurting, Russia has announced it would cut its oil exports in 625000 barrels per day in March.
5/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-plans-deep-march-oil-export-cuts-sources-2023-02-22/

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977378457186304

But now sanctions are mostly in place:
1. An Oil embargo by the EU and an oil price cap from the G7 are (finally!) very significantly reducing Russia's oil revenue - it is selling its oil at a $30 discount versus Brent.
4/

?s=20
RT @AsstSecEcon: The price cap lowers Russian oil revenues in two ways:

1. Locking in a price ceiling for any trade using coalition services.
2. Providing leverage to buyers of Russian oil—including sales outside the cap—shown by the grow…

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977375709917184

Russia has financed the war Russia with its exports of oil and gas:
- $160bn in revenue in 2022
- a 28% ($36.5bn) increase vs 2021
- 45% of total Russian government budget.

We can only imagine what immediate harsh sanctions would have accomplished
3/
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/russian-budget-revenue-from-oil-gas-industry-grew-28-in-2022-official/2788859

🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/lugaricano/status/1628977372937482240