Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano@respublicae.eu
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
El dato más interesante de hoy es la enorme revisión entre junio y septiembre de las predicciones de inflación del @bce y, en consecuencia, del crecimiento.
-Inflación 2022: de 6.8% a 8.1%
-Inflación 2023: de 3.5% a 5.5%
-Crecimiento 2023: de 2.1% a 0.9%
Link to the key ideas in my presentation in Kyiv on April 2022
?s=20&t=dVK3vOR3Ggr8A-HWlsOFHw
RT @lugaricano: Yesterday at @KyivSchool I laid out what the EU should do next for Ukraine: stop financing Putin & provide emergency assistance to Ukraine now. We should overcome “all or nothing” debates and start acting today.
I develop here the key ideas of my presentation in a thread👇
Charts from my April presentation in Kyiv on
1) Duth gas (Groningen) and
2) German Nuclear.
RT @f_poege: Finally out as working paper: "Competition and Innovation: The Breakup of IG Farben"
IG Farben used to be the world's largest chemical company, and its post-WW2 breakup ranks among the major antitrust events in history.
What happened to innovation?
https://t.co/5skVsUQ15I
Also in Chili, as @davidshor and Mark Lilla have been warning, the focus of the identity-left on culturally divisive issues over economic ones and the shared national identity failed to get traction with working class voters.
Vote on Constitution by income level (Apruebo=yes)
Fascinante. Una vez más, las preocupaciones de la izquierda woke no son las de las clases medias y trabajadoras.
RT @carlbildt: Would anyone describe this is a happy and confident trio? Putin obviously doesn’t even want to talk with the commander of the 🇷🇺 armed forces.
Putin plays his last card (the gas cut!) like a a rookie poker player. Threatening Europe so explicitly helps European unity: not even the most cowardly European leaders will want to be seen to cave in front of this bombastic, over the top taunt.
RT @runews: Gazprom publishes a video „Winter will be great“. Corporate trolling.
RT @MSchularick: Very serious people — to use Krugman‘s words — essentially told us 6 months ago that this would be impossible: industrial gas consumption down some 20% without a meaningful output loss. They were wrong.
@ECON_tribute
Al contrario que los países del norte, España no ha reducido nada el uso de gas en generación eléctrica. El coste de suprimir las señales de precios y subsidiar el consumo.
RT @DanielKral1: Countries closest to Russia (Baltics & Finland) have drastically reduced their reliance on natural gas in electricity generation this year.
The opposite happened in Southern Europe (even before the hot and dry summer or the "Iberian exemption" k…
En rojo, el progreso del ataque ruso en los últimos tres meses. A esa velocidad la invasión tardaría dos siglos en concluir.
RT @DefMon3: Captured in 3 months: 612 km2
Left to capture: 481063 km2
Time at current speed: 786 months or 196.5 years
Out of what they had left to capture at 20220602 they have now captured 0.127%.
Now we cannot be scared of Putin retaliation. The gas stopped! Let's act on oil, tankers, insurance now!
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Putin has two HUGE vulnerabilities. First, the West controls most of the global tanker fleet. Second, Russia has little storage capacity if Western oil tankers stop shipping out of Russian ports. The West is totally in control of Putin's ONLY money machine. With @JonathanPingle
RT @RobinBrooksIIF: Putin has two HUGE vulnerabilities. First, the West controls most of the global tanker fleet. Second, Russia has little storage capacity if Western oil tankers stop shipping out of Russian ports. The West is totally in control of Putin's ONLY money machine. With @JonathanPingle
This is the key take away of the Commission proposal (and different from Spain´s implementation): The marginal price stays (and hence right incentives to economize and to substitute gas), the inframarginal rents are reduced by placing a ceiling on inframarginal technologies.
RT @NataliaFabra: 3/ Addressing inframarginal rents directly by limiting their prices is preferable (and more transparent) than doing it indirectly by affecting…
What we were predicting since they 1 of this war has just happened: Nordstream indefinitely closed.
Would it not have made more sense for Europe to have weaned itself off this gas from the first day voluntarily and at our own pace?
RT @FinancialTimes: Breaking news: Russia has indefinitely suspended gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, exacerbating a squeeze on Europe’s energy supplies https://www.ft.com/content/5867c175-d…
RT @NPRinskeep: “The facts are starting to show they were being jerked around,” says Trump’s former attorney general.
RT @Mylovanov: Consider attending this one in a lifetime event in NYC on Sep 17. You can also donate online a small amount that will go towards recovery of medical clinics and building bomb shelters for schools.
Stagflation: in Q2 2022, global production of goods and services (G20 GDP) decreased by 4%; prices (median G20 inflation) increased at a rate of over 6%.
Source: IMF
RT @GitaGopinath: Difficult times ahead for the global economy. In the second quarter growth was negative while core inflation continues to rise.
Are you in NY? Do you want to help Ukraine but do not know how?
Please attend the charity dinner and conference in NY organized by the @KSE_ua . There will also be an auction.
Speakers include Krugman, Myerson, Plokhii, Olga Stefanishina.
Register at https://kse.ua/us/events/usa
Nuevos avances en el "nowcast" de AiREF apuntan a caida mayor de la esperada en el PIB en el 3T, aunque con enorme incertidumbre. Mañana se añaden afiliaciones, dato clave.
El gobierno debe ser cauto con los compromisos de gasto en este entorno.
https://www.airef.es/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MIPRED/Previsio%CC%81n-PIB-tiempo-real-01-09-2022-Web.pdf
Unofficial automated mirror. No copyright asserted. ∎ Economist. Back at LSE as a Professor at @LSEPublicPolicy Summer 2023. Non-resident Fellow @bruegel_org. Recovering MEP. Currently @ChicagoBooth.
Joined Apr 2022
