Jussi Halla-aho @Halla_aho@respublicae.eu
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6/6 The Russians will have to make decisions soon: pull out from the Kherson area before the roads behind are cut, or try to reinforce the Kherson area with the risk of being isolated and with nowhere to retreat.
5/6 With the bridge out of action, that road will be choked with Russian military trying to bring reinforcements to the west and Russian civilians fleeing from Crimea to the east.
4/6 The only remaining road connection from Crimea to Russia is via Dzhankoi-Melitopol-Berdyansk-Mariupol-Taganrog. If and when Ukraine begins a counterattack from the Zaporizhzhja region to Melitopol and the Azov sea cost, that connection will be cut too.
3/6 The most important effect is that Russians - both military and civilian - cannot trust they can evacuate across the Kerch strait when the need arises. If and when Kherson falls, the peninsula will be the next target.
2/6 The mere knowledge that Ukraine can hit the bridge or any target in Crimea is fundamentally important. Russia has to allocate more and more of its already stretched resources to protect Crimea and hunt Ukrainian operators there.
1/6 Pro-Kremlin commentators try to maintain optimism.
The damage to the bridge is not that serious.
It will be soon repaired.
The bridge itself is not that important.
The ferries can compensate.
Etc.
@jirisalin @mrsseppala Kukakohan sellaisen mediatempun on tehnyt?
Onko takana Turkkilan salainen byroo?
@PerttiJJalonen Do you have a better prognosis?
@moodystarbuck Or course it would and should not. But this is probably what a new Russian leadership would propose.
@richarderichson @eskelinen_antti Perhaps you cannot read or do not understand English?
@NNPonomarenko I am predicting what the Russians might do. Not suggesting what Ukraine or the rest of the world should do.
@JoriMantysalo I am against compromises. But this is something a new leadership in Russia would seek.
@west46491059 I am predicting events inside Russia, not telling others what they should do.
9/9 The only way out of this spiral to the bottom is to remove Mr Putin. I believe this is the most likely perspective. He will be sent to a "vacation", the Security Council will assume collective leadership. They will seek a cease-fire and some compromise.
8/9 There are people in the Kremlin and the Russian military who understand that although Russia has already lost much, it can and will lose much more the longer the war continues. They also know that Mr Putin will not stop.
7/9 He probably believes time is working for him, but I do not believe that is the case. The West, especially the US and the UK, has invested so much political capital in his defeat that his victory is no longer an option. They have more and better material than Mr Putin.
6/9 So, he will continue to throw conscripts, recruits and material into the grinder until a) he wins, b) he runs out of them, c) something happens to him.
5/9 Will Mr Putin use a nuclear weapon? No. He loves (his own) life. He is very fond of himself. He knows using a nuke would have no military value for him but would have catastrophic consequences for his personal physical existence.
4/9 Russians are historically very good at dying en masse for their leaders. There are, however, cases where they have had enough, quit fighting a war they do not understand and turned against their masters. Think about 1917.
Is the army close to a breaking point? I do not know.
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