1/20 This week, I had a breakfast meeting with the Ambassador of Georgia, Mr. Irakli Khutsurauli.
Our two countries have much in common, including the common headache in between.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598262365031927810
2/20 As the Ambassador noted, the Russian campaign to restore the lost empire did not begin in 2022 or even 2014. It began in Georgia in 2008. Because of no Western reaction then and a feeble reaction in 2014, we have a total war of destruction in the middle of Europe in 2022.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598262614563471360
3/20 In "The Unknown Soldier" ("Tuntematon sotilas"), the Finnish semi-epic war novel of 1954, 2nd Lt Koskela instructs inexperienced and shaky conscripts on the eve of the "Continuation War" in 1941:
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598263025039192065
4/20 "Remember that they are human, too. They obey lead, just like every one else."
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598263178701541376
5/20 The good news is that - as the Ukrainians have shown this year - the Russians still obey lead. The bad news is that this is the only thing they obey. They do not obey laws, treaties, or basic moral standards at any level.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598263344716476417
6/20 The Ambassador raised the EU and Nato aspirations and perspectives of his country. This is an area where I have changed my mind or at least modified my thoughts since 2014.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598263476581195777
7/20 The wars in Georgia and Ukraine started because the West kept these countries out. The West kept them out because it did not want to provoke Russia. Russia, in turn, interpreted this as a recognition of Georgia and Ukraine belonging to its sphere of influence.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598263650506395648
8/20 Left with no (real) Western perspective, these countries did not have a sufficient incentive to reform their societies. Corruption, misuse of power and dysfunctional institutions kept them weak. Weakness made them a tempting target for Russian aggression.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598263813899681792
9/20 Russia does not invade its neighbors because it is provoked. It has imperialistic motives, and it invades when it believes the neighbor is weak and alone. If the Baltic states had been kept out of the EU and Nato, Russia would have invaded them.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598264070368817152
10/20 The only way to have an enduring peace with Russia is to give Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova a European perspective and yank them out of the sphere within which Russia believes it can act with impunity.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598264221007241217
11/20 The EU has made three kinds of mistakes in its expansion policy:
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598264363357712385
12/20 a) The EU has accepted members that are not ready for membership. The accession process itself is an incentive to make economic, administrative, legal and judicial reforms. If membership is granted too early, the reform will stall.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598264514692411394
13/20 b) It pretends to negotiate with countries which it never plans to accept as members. False and broken promises lead to disappointment, frustration and disillusionment, and these lead to negative developments in the countries in question.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598264714207039489
14/20 c) It tries to expand and deepen at the same time. The more the EU transforms into a union of common debt and money transfers, the less inclined the current members and their citizens are to accept new and increasingly poor members.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598265187077087233
15/20 Thus, a path to the EU should be opened for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. It must consist of small, consecutive, clearly defined steps and clear criteria, conditions and benchmarks.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598265297303396352
16/20 The applicants must be able to trust that once they accomplish one set of criteria, the process will move forward in a predictable manner. And, conversely, if they do not, it will not. Stick and carrot will keep reforms going.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598265582121414659
17/20 At the same time, the EU should be less ambitious about the "ever-deepening union" and start being big in big things and small in small things, not the other way around as tends to be the case today.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598265686094098432
18/20 My personal opinion is that it would be in everybody's interests to take the three countries into Nato. Unique arrangements would be required, of course, such as restricting the Article 5 to the areas currently controlled by them.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598265928340230144
20/20 Russia is and always has been a bully and a coward. It seeks victims that it perceives are weak and alone.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598266138143887362
19/20 This would not necessarily end the occupation of parts of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, but it would certainly stop the escalation of the conflicts and prevent future Russian campaigns.
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/Halla_aho/status/1598266053431549953