As the author says, highly unlikely.
OTOH, so what? It would be concerned with its internal conflicts for decades.
Alas, there is just one unsubstantiated sentence asserting a "breakup would be disastrous for international security". Why? How? Evidence?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-war-and-dangers-russian-disintegration?utm_medium=social
🐦🔗: https://n.respublicae.eu/IlvesToomas/status/1602960122162061312