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A sobering piece. We shouldn’t be distracted too much by this Prigoszhin drama.
"The longer the war lasts, the greater the pressures on the Western coalition will grow—and the greater the temptation to try and pressure Kyiv into making an ugly peace with Moscow" n.respublicae.eu/tabletmag/sta
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Tablet Magazine: Ukraine Needs to Win Faster: Kyiv is fighting three wars, not one—and time likely favors Moscow, from @MarkGaleotti
tabletmag.com/sections/news/ar
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

Excellent piece by @LawDavF n.respublicae.eu/lawdavf/statu
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Lawrence Freedman: New post on the implications of the anti-climactic end to the Prigozhin-Putin clash, including for the course of the war. samf.substack.com/p/that-was-t
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

He says he has gone back to Ukraine. That means to kill more people. 😥
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Dmitri: Prigozhin says it's over:
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood… n.respublicae.eu/i/web/status/

🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

What is the deal?
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Anton Gerashchenko: Lukashenko reported he conducted negotiations with Prigozhin on Putin's request.
Prigozhin allegedly accepted Lukashenko's offer to stop movement of Wagner's mercenaries and take further steps to de-escalate tension - Pul Pervogo Telegram channel:
"At the moment, there is an… n.respublicae.eu/i/web/status/ t.co/iCj5Tk7kgw
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

This could be worrying for Ukraine. What does this new MoD have to do to be more amenable?
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Michael Weiss: Er, so Putin caved to a putschist with an army and agreed to make the MoD more amenable to him, after the putschist showed how well he can challenge the regime. And the guy gets to live? Things are wild, weird and unpredictable in Russia but this doesn’t quite convince.
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

Most people are not intelligent enough to do this. But what will happen in the war now? The destabilisation of Putin could make him dangerous in unpredictable ways. If for instance he feels the need for performative escalation. Hope I’m wrong. This could be the reason for the… n.respublicae.eu/i/web/status/
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Natalka: Need your opinions!
As we know Putin came to power staging terro…

🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

Sadly I believe this to be true. It may get worse.
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Dimko Zhluktenko 🇺🇦: Please, read this.
Wagner and Prigozhin are not anti-war. They are rebelling against Russian military leadership to take over - to kill Ukrainians more efficiently Shoigu does.
They are not saying the war is pointless. They just want more power to kill Ukrainians.
That’s it. t.co/ZSNL9tPGHU
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

So. More fighters for the Russian MoD…..
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max seddon: Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential MOD leadership changes
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

👉"As the situation unfolds, US and Western officials are being careful not to weigh because of how Putin could weaponize any perceived involvement by the west in the escalating crisis, sources familiar with the administration’s thinking told CNN" cnn.com/2023/06/24/politics/us

🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

A private army for Lukashenko?
A new attack on Ukraine?
Somehow I have a deeply uneasy feeling. But why?
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Anton Gerashchenko: He was several steps away from the Kremlin, and now is going to Belarus: Russian media posted a photo of Prigozhin leaving Rostov.
Prigozhin is coming to Lukashenko.
What will this arrangement lead to? We'll see soon. t.co/uvcHqT0oo9
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

⚡️Zelenskyy "if someone in the world is under the illusion that the Kremlin is capable of regaining control... this only postpones the problem until the next breakthrough of chaos – even more dangerous"
Exactly.
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Володимир Зеленський: We all remember how the head of Russia threatened the world in 2021. He had some ultimatums, he was trying to show a kind of strength...
The year 2022 showed that he conf…

🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

⁦@WarintheFuture⁩
"The worst outcome is that Putin, under pressure from hardliners, doubles down on Ukraine. This could involve another round of mobilisations and stepped-up attacks on vulnerable civilians and critical infrastructure in Ukraine"
smh.com.au/world/europe/why-do

🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

Dr Stranglove back again! t.co/YmHHVZdwPP
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Anton Gerashchenko: “This is a serious blow to the authority of the country, and to the authority of the president... So this is a very bad symptom" - Russian propagandists allow themselves to be critical towards Putin. t.co/s7p6PGDFvX
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

I’m hoping none of these involve marching on Ukraine…. 🤞
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Eugene Finkel: If history is any guide, there are several futures for Prigozhin in Belarus:
1. He is thrown into a dungeon, blinded and starved to death
2. He overthrows the local chieftain and marches on Moscow again
3. At some point Lukashenka puts him on a train
4. History is not a guide
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

They will wait until Prigozhin is in Africa again and then hire another warlord to kill him. @MarkHertling was right to define him as that. The whole thing is an inter-gangster dispute about power and money. How can these people can be negotiated with?
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OSINTdefender: U.S. Defense and Intelligence Officials believe that Decisions were made about the Future of a number of Russian Military Leaders, includ…

🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

This quote from US President John Adams “A republic of laws, not men.”
Donald Trump is doing his best to dismantle that….
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Mark Toth: @Tendar Spot on Tendar. Strange for most of the world. Business as usual in a mafia state.
thehill.com/opinion/4066116-ye
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🐦🔗: n.respublicae.eu/NChildersMEP/

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