@EU_ISS

(1/n)

For anyone wanting a deeper understanding of #Turkey's (#Türkiye) security and foreign policy in the #BlackSea region, I can highly recommend this piece by the #EUISS, the #EU's agency analyzing foreign, security and defence policy issues.

While I do share the following conclusion's findings, it can neither be in the #EU's nor #NATO's interest to accept the correct assertion as a given for the for the future. Even for #Türkiye,...

https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/sailing-through-storm

@EU_ISS

(2/2)

...it is questionable if the perceived de-facto "#Russian-Turkish duopoly of power" would be desirable, as this could quite possibly be a return to the pre-20th century antagonism with #Russia.

Besides, this will now never come to pass.
As the article correctly points out, all none-#Russian countries in the NW of the #BlackSea will join the #EU in the medium term.

That said, while I agree with the current assessment of #Turkey's foreign-policy needs by....

@EU_ISS

(3/n)

...the #EUISS, I strongly oppose the view that the interests of all current + future #NATO members cannot be better aligned.

For #China, as it's policies in the #SouthChinaSea, the de-facto "#circumvallation" of #India, and its #BeltAndRoad Initiative, particularly in #Africa and other countries of the #GlobalSouth, has shown, "#multipolar world" means a #Chinese hegemony.
To think that being able to play a power broker between the two future superpowers, the...

@EU_ISS

(3/n)

...#US and #China, can be a viable strategy, as also #India has been thinking, maybe more with a "#Swiss neutrality" model in mind, will prove to be futile in the long run.

As the #US' and #China's antagonism deepens, the two countries stuck in the middle will simply not have anywhere near the economic resources to pursue such a strategy successfully. The necessary investments in military and high-tech (e.g. semiconductor fabs) are ever increasing. With an...

@EU_ISS

(4/n)

... inflation rate of over 40% and a mounting debt, as well as the need for imports, this is just wishful thinking by #Türkiye.

That said, what must be done given the millennia of joint cultural ties + history b/w #AsiaMinor + #Europe is to proceed in high-gear with #EU #membership talks in earnest on both sides.

It is true that #Eastern Turkey is not the same culturally as the #Mediterranean border region. The #Kurdish question is unresolved, but so was (and...

@EU_ISS

(5/n)

..still is) the #Ulster question), however such ethnic differences are much more easily resolved in a supranational construct, such as the #EU.

If #Turkey finds it way back to its secular, democratic routs of its founder, #Kemal #Atatürk, in today's turning-point national #elections, the historic antagonism between #Europe and #Turkey could finally be overcome.

As the article is quite long, I will post the main part of the conclusion I was...

@EU_ISS

(6/n)

...referencing to, here:

"Despite deepening divisions and the #Kremlin’s expansionism, #Türkiye will continue to maintain, to the extent that this is possible, equidistance from #Russia and the #West in order to assert its strategic autonomy. Although it will show support for #Ukraine, #Ankara will not be pushing for a full defeat of #Russia as this would diminish its own geopolitical weight and the leverage it holds vis-à-vis the #UnitedStates and..."

@EU_ISS

(7/n)

"...its #European allies. Regardless of whether #Erdoğan wins the presidential race in the spring or a new leader emerges, the current course of #Turkish foreign policy is unlikely to change significantly."*

*
https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/sailing-through-storm

It is this sentence that IMO makes longlasting peace and stability in #Eastern #Europe impossible, that the other #NATO allies must not accept:

"...#Ankara..."

@EU_ISS

(8/n)

"...will not be pushing for a full defeat of #Russia..."

IMO, if current strategies continue, the #RussianFederation's collapse is highly likely, unless the #GOP wins the #US #Elections2024.

Now is also the time to prepare for a post-war #Russia*, the #European regions of which IMO must quickly be integrated in the Western economic and security infrastructure, a renewed version of former #French President's vision, "#Europe from the #Atlantic to the #Urals".**

@EU_ISS

(9/9)

Further reading:

*
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/07/russia-ukraine-putin-collapse-disintegration-civil-war-empire/

**
De Gaule's speech:
https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00003521;jsessionid=E83E3C25FB18C2B000FBF97A6447FE5D

Strategic insights:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/economic-transition-in-central-and-eastern-europe/new-europe-from-the-atlantic-to-the-urals/BB2D2C4470AAB076C85BA8148E2E7CC7

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2847704

https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/about-a-europe-from-the-atlantic-to-the-urals/

https://tass.com/russia/747633

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316715465_The_Geopolitics_of_Europe_From_the_Atlantic_to_the_Urals

@HistoPol @EU_ISS Great read. Thanks for posting this.

@drrjv

Thanks.
I thought so, too, and as the format was not suitable for larger audiences, I went through the trouble (which I had vastly underestimated. 😉)

Still, I think this is a benchmark article, in particular in understanding #Turkey and its interests regarding the #BlackSea region nations, including #Russia and #Ukraine.

@EU_ISS