🧵Changes in labour markets, the energy transition and a deepening geopolitical divide are characterising the current environment, says President @Lagarde at Jackson Hole.
We need to understand how these shifts will affect our economies and how we can best respond to them
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Re There are plausible scenarios where we could see a fundamental change in the nature of global economic relationships. To ensure stability and robust policymaking, we need:
🔵 Clarity on our objectives
🔵 Flexibility in our analysis
🔵 Humility in how we communicate
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Re Read President Christine @Lagarde’s full speech on policymaking in an age of shifts and breaks https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230825~77711105fe.en.html
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How do our interest rate hikes fight inflation? Are we already seeing the impact on prices? And is this the end of super-low rates?
Host @katieranger_ puts these questions to our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane in #TheECBPodcast’s Summer School mini-series https://pod.link/ecbpodcast/episode/08504aa69b1b50ea1c2c9294d49c3341
The latest Economic Bulletin is out!
The Bulletin presents the economic and monetary information which forms the basis for our policy decisions.
Read more https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/html/eb202305.en.html
Consumers’ interest rate expectations have increased following the tightening of monetary policy, our #EconomicBulletin finds. Participants in our Consumer Expectations Survey are factoring the impact of higher interest rates into their spending decisions https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_02~09baa904dd.en.html
The ECB’s climate change indicators provide policymakers with valuable data on the climate-related risks facing the euro area economy.
Our #EconomicBulletin examines the indicators, covering sustainable finance, carbon emissions and physical risks https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_04~9763eb5823.en.html
Growth in the euro area’s non-financial corporate bond market has led to a far more diversified investor base, our #EconomicBulletin finds. Insurance corporations and pension funds are now no longer the largest holders within the private sector https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_06~3f689a7ab9.en.html
House price growth is slowing in advanced economies. Our #EconomicBulletin finds that the peak effect of monetary policy shocks on house prices and consumption varies across countries, a divergence largely linked to the collateral and cash-flow channels https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_07~5c49bb27d6.en.html
Public sector wages took a deep cut in real terms in 2022, but are projected to grow cumulatively at rates above inflation over the period 2023-25. According to our #EconomicBulletin, they will increase by more in countries where inflation has been higher https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_08~37403a54da.en.html
Together with @hrPresse, we are looking forward to #CelebratingEurope again at this year’s #EuropaOpenAir concert on 31 August! Join us for a musical evening with the Frankfurt Radio Symphony, on the banks of the river Main, in our hometown of Frankfurt https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr230810~f2ea314787.en.html
A big thank-you to the 254,735 Europeans who have shared their views about possible new themes for future euro banknotes. Take a look at who we’ve heard from!
Don’t miss the chance to have your say! You’ve still got until 31 August to do our survey https://survey.ecb.europa.eu/euro-banknote-survey?lang=en
Re To ensure views from across the euro area are equally represented, we’ve also asked an independent research firm to run our survey on a sample group of people who represent the diversity of the euro area population.
🧵A mixture of ambitious carbon emissions pricing, further regulatory action and technological innovation is needed to meet the EU’s climate goals. Our #EconomicBulletin looks at the short to medium-term economic impact of carbon pricing https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2023/html/ecb.ebart202305_01~a6ff071a65.en.html
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Re Carbon price increases affect output and inflation mainly through higher energy prices. But their impact also depends on distributional effects, global transition policies, fiscal and monetary policy and the ability of financial intermediaries to support capital reallocation.
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Re Model-based estimates of the impact of a plausible carbon price path for the rest of this decade suggest limited effects on output and inflation, but also only a limited contribution to reaching the EU’s targets to reduce carbon emissions.
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A central bank’s words matter as much as its actions, as changes in tone can point to shifts in monetary policy. We have measured and compared the tone of policy communication used by the ECB and the US Fed. #TheECBBlog describes our findings
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog230809~f101598a82.en.html
What do consumers in the euro area expect will happen to inflation, their incomes, their spending and the value of their homes 12 months from now? We’ve published the latest results of our Consumer Expectations Survey.
Press release https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr230808~de1c74e79e.en.html
🧵People’s perceptions of housing as a good investment began to deteriorate before the recent decline in housing investment in the euro area, our #EconomicBulletin finds. The analysis draws on responses to our Consumer Expectations Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202305_01~755244b08d.en.html
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Re People perceive housing as an investment differently depending on their demographic and economic characteristics. On average, older consumers, males and financially stronger households show a greater willingness to invest in housing than younger consumers and females
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